Crystal Palace 1-4 Manchester City. Erling Haaland scored twice and collected 13 points including three bonus. Anyone who kept the armband on him banked 26.
And the day before, we wrote that he was only tenth in our captaincy ranking. So let us start there.
The model got it wrong, and that is worth saying plainly
We gave Haaland a risk of 44 and an upside of 74, the lowest scoring potential in our top ten. The reasoning was twofold: an away trip to Palace, which the official difficulty scale rates higher than his rivals’ home games, and two points from the opening weekend. On that basis we pointed to Rogers and Bruno Fernandes as better profiles.
It finished 4-1 to City, with Haaland scoring twice.
This is not a bug in the maths, it is the limit of the method. The model estimates what repeats, not what happens in one specific match. With a single gameweek played it has very little data, and a striker like Haaland can void any statistic in one evening. We wrote yesterday that captaining him was not a mistake — and it is a good thing we did, because that is exactly what played out.
A more interesting number than Haaland
The highest score in the match did not belong to the Norwegian. Rayan Cherki scored twice, took three bonus points and finished on 14 — one more than Haaland, at £7.5m instead of £15.5m and 13.3% ownership instead of 68%.
Phil Foden added two assists and 9 points at just 4.1% ownership, while Semenyo contributed an assist and 5 points.
We flagged Cherki as one to watch in Monday’s piece on City’s rebuild, when he returned 8 points in 27 minutes. This time he got more minutes and used them. At that ownership he remains a genuine differential.
What this means for the weeks ahead
One thing today is worth more than relitigating the captaincy: City had three players return 13, 14 and 9 points in a single match, and two of them are owned by under 15% of managers. If you are looking for a place to gain ground on the crowd, that is where it is — not on Haaland, who two thirds of the game already owns.
It is also worth remembering the warning we gave ourselves: the match kicked off ninety minutes after the deadline, so everyone set their armband blind. This time it worked out for most people.
The rest of the round is still to come
One match of ten has been played. The average score in the game currently stands at 18. On Saturday Liverpool host Forest, Everton travel to Bournemouth and Tottenham face Newcastle at home. Sunday brings Chelsea v Brighton and Manchester United v Ipswich, with Aston Villa v Arsenal on Monday.
Our full gameweek review, together with the mini-league table, goes up after the final whistle on Monday. Every rating is kept current in the AI Player Rankings.
Data from Friday’s match, correct as of Saturday 29 August morning. Bonus points confirmed.