Erling Haaland is owned by almost 68% of managers, and he is only tenth in our captaincy ranking. That is not a mistake, and not contrarianism for its own sake. The reasons come down to two numbers and one kick-off time.
Why the model is not backing Haaland today
For every pick we calculate two things: risk (availability, minutes security, fixture difficulty) and upside (scoring potential from attacking data and how easy the opponent is). Haaland has a risk of 44 and an upside of 74 — the lowest in our entire top ten.
Then there is the detail that is easy to forget: Manchester City play tonight at 8pm, ninety minutes after the deadline. Anyone captaining him does so without seeing the line-up. For a player who returned two points on opening weekend, that is a double unknown.
Who has the best profile
| Player | Rating | Risk | Upside | Owned | Fixture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Szoboszlai (LIV) | 90 | 44 | 79 | 43.3% | Forest (H) |
| Rogers (CHE) | 89 | 37 | 88 | 26.1% | Brighton (H) |
| B. Fernandes (MUN) | 89 | 37 | 86 | 48.3% | Ipswich (H) |
| João Pedro (CHE) | 88 | 37 | 87 | 68.1% | Brighton (H) |
| Dewsbury-Hall (EVE) | 89 | 44 | 76 | 4.7% | Bournemouth (A) |
| Haaland (MCI) | 88 | 44 | 74 | 67.9% | Palace (A) |
There is a simple pattern here: the three players with the lowest risk and highest upside are all at home against theoretically weaker opponents. Rogers and João Pedro host Brighton, Bruno Fernandes faces Ipswich. Haaland travels.
Three sensible calls
Safest: Szoboszlai. Highest rating in the game, the only Strong Buy, 8 points on opening weekend. Liverpool are at home on Saturday lunchtime.
Best profile: Morgan Rogers. Risk 37 with an upside of 88 is the best combination in the ten, and only one in four managers owns him. Chelsea play at home on Sunday.
If you want to differentiate: Dewsbury-Hall is on 4.7% ownership with 11 points from Gameweek 1, and Gakpo on 6.3% with 12 points. These are armbands for the brave, but at that ownership every point counts double.
Honestly: what the model cannot see
It does not know the starting line-ups, because they are announced after the deadline. It does not know who is tired. In Gameweek 2 it is working from one played match plus last season’s output, so its edge over common sense is smaller than it will be in November.
Nor are we saying captaining Haaland is a mistake. He rates 88 with a buy verdict and is in our recommended squad. We are only saying that five other players look better today, and the difference comes mostly from the fixtures.
One last piece of advice
Set your vice-captain from a different fixture than your captain. If you back Haaland, whose match starts tonight, take your vice from Sunday. If your captain plays Saturday lunchtime, take the vice from Monday’s Villa v Arsenal. The auto-swap only triggers if your captain does not appear at all.
The full five with our notes is in Captain Picks, and every rating is in the AI Player Rankings. The wider view of the round is in our deadline guide.
Numbers from Friday 28 August. The deadline is at 6.30pm today. Our ratings are generated by an AI model from official FPL data, refreshed hourly.