Update (Friday 17:55 UK — half an hour before the deadline). Three flags appeared this afternoon that were not there in the morning.
- Richarlison (Tottenham, 1.5% ownership) — not included in the matchday squad. If he is in your starting eleven, that is a guaranteed zero.
- Cristhian Mosquera (Arsenal, 4.3%) — new flag, 75% chance of playing.
- Bruno Guimarães (Arsenal, 2.1%) — a knock, 75% chance of playing.
There is one mitigating factor for both Arsenal players: Arsenal do not play until Sunday, so they have two more days. But you are locking your squad today, so the risk counts now. Going the other way, Manchester City’s Matheus Nunes has been cleared.
The five captaincy picks below are unchanged.
A few hours to the deadline — it closes today at 18:30 UK. The last call you make is the armband. And here our model says something worth hearing before you click: Erling Haaland does not make our top five captaincy picks today, even though 71.6% of managers own him — the highest in the game.
The five, by the model
For every pick we calculate two things. Risk covers minutes security, availability and fixture difficulty. Upside is the points ceiling from attacking numbers set against that specific opponent.
| # | Player | Price | Rating | Risk | Upside | Fixture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Szoboszlai (LIV) | £7.0m | 90 | 36 | 89 | away Ipswich (2) |
| 2 | Semenyo (MCI) | £8.5m | 90 | 36 | 85 | home Coventry (2) |
| 3 | Ndiaye (MCI) | £6.0m | 89 | 36 | 86 | home Coventry (2) |
| 4 | Gakpo (LIV) | £7.1m | 89 | 36 | 87 | away Ipswich (2) |
| 5 | Guéhi (MCI) | £6.0m | 89 | 36 | 87 | home Coventry (2) |
The model points to Szoboszlai: the highest rating in the game and the highest ceiling in the group. But before you decide, there are three things worth knowing.
Three things before you click
1. Liverpool play at 20:00 UK, ninety minutes after the deadline
Szoboszlai and Gakpo, first and fourth in our ranking, kick off after squads lock. You would be captaining them without seeing the team sheet. If you want certainty, a captain from Manchester City’s Saturday fixture gives it to you — at the cost of a slightly lower ceiling.
2. Three of the five play in the same match
Semenyo, Ndiaye and Guéhi are all Manchester City against Coventry. It is the easiest fixture of the round, but it also concentrates your risk: if City do not score, none of them delivers. A sensible vice-captain comes from a different match than your captain.
3. Ndiaye at £6.0m is third — and is being sold
This is the number of the day. After his move to Manchester City, Ndiaye rates 89 and sits third among our captaincy picks — while more than 330,000 managers have sold him this week. His ownership has fallen from 14.3% to 12.6%.
The instinct makes sense: new club, crowded attack, uncertainty over the line-up. But the model reads it differently — he got an easier fixture run and a better team, so his rating went up after the transfer, not down.
Why Haaland is outside the five
Not because he is a poor pick. Haaland rates 89 with a “buy” verdict, is at home to Coventry and sits in our Recommended Squad. It is that at £15.5m the model values the ceiling of four cheaper players with an equally kind fixture more highly.
Captaining Haaland is not a mistake. It is the safe call and the one seven in ten managers are making. If you want to differentiate, the armband on Szoboszlai or Ndiaye is how — provided you accept that a big Haaland game costs you ground on all of them.
What the model does not know
Three things to remember every week. It does not know the line-ups — those come an hour before kick-off, after the deadline. It does not see fatigue from the international break or what is happening in the dressing room. And it does not read transfer reports — it judges sporting data, not rumours.
So treat this five as a starting point, not a verdict. The last press conferences run until midday, and injury flags can change hours before squads lock.
Final checklist
- Check whether you own anyone flagged as departed — the full list is in yesterday’s article, led by Watkins.
- Rodon (Leeds) is out until 21 November — owning him is a guaranteed loss.
- Captain and vice from different matches.
- Remember Liverpool kick off after the deadline.
- Do not make a transfer just because someone rose £0.1m.
Every pick with risk and upside is in Captain Picks, and the full ratings are in the AI Rankings. You can also join our mini league — code 3ix1cw, currently 69 teams.
Our ratings are generated by an AI model from official FPL data, refreshed hourly. The numbers are from Friday 4 September, morning.