Update (Friday 23 October, afternoon): three changes before the deadline.
- Saka is out. The game has moved him from 50% to “injured, unknown return date”. At Friday’s press conference Arteta said Saka is having another MRI today, because there is a lot of fluid in the thigh and it is hard to judge the extent of the injury. Do not count on him against Everton. If you own Saka and can make a transfer, do it before 18:30. He has already been sold by 460k managers.
- Three flags at Leeds. Calvert-Lewin (23.9% ownership), Stach and Okafor are all at 50%. Manager Daniel Farke said that if the game were today, none of them would play. Calvert-Lewin has a bruised foot from the Manchester United game, and Stach also has a foot problem. Leeds do not play until Sunday at 16:30 at Sunderland, so there are two more days. This morning we suggested Stach as a cheaper option, but at 50% Le Fée (£5.7m, 88) or Tavernier (£6.2m, 89) are better picks. If you own Calvert-Lewin, make sure you have a forward on your bench who will play. Leeds play the last match of the gameweek, so an automatic substitution will work. Bogle of Leeds is fit.
- Good news from Tottenham: Pedro Porro (4.7%) and Marmoush are fully available again for Saturday’s game at Chelsea.
Our Recommended Squad recalculates with every data sync, so players flagged at 50% will drop out of it automatically.
The FPL Gameweek 8 deadline is tonight, Friday, at 18:30 UK time, and the first match (Ipswich v Nottingham Forest) kicks off at 20:00. Three decisions affect a large share of squads: what to do with Saka, who replaces the injured Semenyo and Szoboszlai, and who gets the armband now that Haaland is fit but plays away in Birmingham.
Saka: a 50-50 and bad signals from Arsenal
Saka (14.5% ownership) came off ten minutes into Wednesday’s match with Bayern with a left thigh injury. The game first lowered his chance of playing to 75%, and now to 50%. Mikel Arteta admitted the injury does not look good and that the medical staff are concerned. The club has not released scan results yet. Saka has been sold by 294k managers this week, and our rating has dropped from 87 to 82.
Our advice: if you have a free transfer and no bench player who would come in automatically, today is a good moment to move him on. A 50% flag combined with those comments from the manager points more towards “won’t play” than “will play”. Arsenal host Everton at 15:00 on Saturday, after the deadline.
For similar money: Palmer (£9.8m, rated 87), or the cheaper Rogers (£8.0m, 89), both at home to Tottenham. To free up funds: Tavernier (£6.2m, 89), Le Fée (£5.7m, 88) or Stach (£6.0m, 88).
Semenyo and Szoboszlai: the crowd is right
Semenyo (10.9%) has a knee ligament injury and, according to Maresca, will be out for around eight weeks. He is the most transferred-out player in the game (409k). Szoboszlai (18.1%) has a recurrence of his hamstring problem and is listed as injured with no return date (399k transfers out). In both cases selling is the right call: neither will play this gameweek.
If you want to stay with City, the popular option is Cherki (£8.0m, rated 84, 289k transfers in). A cheaper option is Foden (£6.8m, 2.2% ownership), who scored a hat-trick against AEK on Tuesday, but our model rates him only 78 because he has played just 293 league minutes.
Captain: Rogers, with Haaland only ninth
Enzo Maresca confirmed Haaland is 100% fit for Saturday’s game in Birmingham. He rested for the whole of Tuesday’s match with AEK. Even so, he is only ninth in our captain picks, because Villa Park is a tough away trip.
| Player | Rating | Risk | Upside | Fixture (difficulty) | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogers (CHE) | 89 | 31 | 89 | TOT at home (2) | 48.6% |
| João Pedro (CHE) | 88 | 32 | 86 | TOT at home (2) | 73.2% |
| Bogle (LEE) | 89 | 39 | 75 | SUN away (3) | 10.4% |
| Tavernier (BOU) | 89 | 46 | 69 | MUN away (4) | 10.7% |
| Haaland (MCI), 9th | 87 | 38 | 79 | AVL away (3) | 77.0% |
Rogers has the best profile: the lowest risk and the highest points upside. Chelsea are not in European competition this season, so they have had a full week to rest, and they host Tottenham at 17:30 on Saturday. Captaining Haaland is not a mistake, but 77% of managers own him, so it will not set you apart. Rogers is in roughly every second squad, which gives you a real chance to gain on the crowd.
Note: our Recommended Squad picks its captain purely on rating, which is why defender Bogle gets the armband this week (he has the same rating as Rogers but more points this season). For the captaincy decision, use the captain picks, which also take risk and upside into account.
Where the crowd and the model disagree
The most transferred-in players this week are Tavernier (324k), Cherki (289k), Groß (240k), De Cuyper (217k) and Rogers (215k). The model agrees with these picks, although Tavernier and Groß have tough away games: Bournemouth at Old Trafford and Brighton at Anfield.
Two disagreements are worth knowing:
- Bruno Fernandes (28.1%) is the third most transferred-out player (316k), yet our model still rates him 86, a Buy. United are seven games without a win, and according to ESPN Michael Carrick will lead the team on Sunday despite the pressure. The model sees league data, not a crisis at the club, so the crowd may well be right here.
- Gibbs-White (11.6%) has lost his flag, is rated 87, and Forest play at Ipswich tonight, the easiest fixture of the gameweek (difficulty 2). Even so, 119k managers have sold him. Here the model is on Gibbs-White’s side.
Budget picks and differentials
| Player | Price | Rating | Ownership | Fixture (difficulty) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogle (LEE) | £4.7m | 89 | 10.4% | SUN away (3) |
| Van Hecke (TOT) | £4.9m | 87 | 6.8% | CHE away (4) |
| Mitchell (CRY) | £4.5m | 86 | 5.6% | NEW at home (3) |
| Justin (LEE) | £4.5m | 86 | 2.1% | SUN away (3) |
| Le Fée (SUN) | £5.7m | 88 | 2.9% | LEE at home (3) |
| Lewis-Potter (BRE) | £5.5m | 86 | 1.8% | HUL away (2) |
| Iwobi (FUL) | £5.4m | 85 | 1.2% | COV away (2) |
| Stach (LEE) | £6.0m | 88 | 2.3% | SUN away (3) |
| Evanilson (BOU) | £6.1m | 88 | 4.9% | MUN away (4) |
The best budget option is Bogle: a £4.7m defender rated 89, the same as Rogers. Lewis-Potter and Iwobi have the easiest fixtures in this group.
Recommended Squad for Gameweek 8
The model has gone 3-4-3: Verbruggen in goal; Bogle, Van Hecke and De Cuyper in defence; Tavernier, Rogers, Stach and Le Fée in midfield; João Pedro, Evanilson and Haaland up front. It leaves £8.8m in the bank, because it picks on rating, not price. The full squad with the bench is on the Recommended Squad page.
Other flags and prices
- Doubts (75%): O’Reilly (9.0%), back problem, Maresca’s decision after Thursday’s training; Brobbey (5.4%).
- Out: Shaw (5.3%), Hull’s Mendy (5.3%, back around 31 Oct), Pedro Porro (4.8%), Tzolis (4.6%, around 1 Nov), Chelsea’s Reece James and Martínez (4.0% each).
- Guaranteed blanks: Watkins (Al Hilal) is still in 2.3% of squads, and Andrés García (on loan at Getafe) in 1.4%.
- Prices: 47 changes since the Gameweek 7 deadline, 13 of them rises: Calafiori, Tavernier, De Cuyper, Groß, Rogers, Palmer, João Pedro, Calvert-Lewin, Cherki, Doku, Jacquet and Manzambi.
All flags are in the Injury Centre, and we covered the English clubs’ Champions League week (including Saka’s injury) here.
Gameweek 8 fixtures
| Day | Kick-off (UK) | Match |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 23 Oct | 20:00 | Ipswich v Nottingham Forest |
| Sat 24 Oct | 12:30 | Aston Villa v Manchester City |
| Sat 24 Oct | 15:00 | Arsenal v Everton |
| Sat 24 Oct | 15:00 | Coventry v Fulham |
| Sat 24 Oct | 17:30 | Chelsea v Tottenham |
| Sun 25 Oct | 14:00 | Crystal Palace v Newcastle |
| Sun 25 Oct | 14:00 | Hull v Brentford |
| Sun 25 Oct | 14:00 | Liverpool v Brighton |
| Sun 25 Oct | 14:00 | Manchester United v Bournemouth |
| Sun 25 Oct | 16:30 | Sunderland v Leeds |
UK clocks go back in the early hours of Sunday, so Sunday’s matches kick off at 14:00 and 16:30. The difficulty of every fixture several gameweeks ahead is in our Fixture Ticker.
Five-minute checklist before the deadline
- Saka: if you keep him, is there someone on your bench who will come in for him?
- Semenyo, Szoboszlai, Watkins: each of them is a guaranteed blank.
- Captain and vice-captain from different matches, for example Rogers and Haaland.
- Gibbs-White plays tonight at 20:00, 1.5 hours after the deadline, so you will only see his line-up after transfers close.
- Ratings for every player are in our AI rankings.
Flags, ownership, transfers, prices and ratings come from the official game API and our engine, as of Friday 23 October morning. Managers’ comments according to Sky Sports, ESPN and Manchester City’s official website. This article was produced with the help of artificial intelligence and checked by our editors. This is not betting advice.