Update (Friday 18 September, 13:45 BST) — we have a diagnosis, and he probably will not play.
ESPN Brasil report the details: edema in the knee caused by a sprain of the anterior cruciate and medial collateral ligaments, picked up in Saturday’s game against Hull. The advised lay-off is around three and a half weeks. On that reporting he will not play against Brentford tonight, with Danny Welbeck expected to lead the line instead.
An honest caveat: this is media reporting, not a club statement. In the game his status is still 75%, and Alonso said on Thursday that an appearance was possible — which, per ESPN Brasil, came as a surprise because it contradicted the recovery plan already given to the player.
And now the part that cuts against what the crowd is doing today. Three and a half weeks from the injury lands around 10 October — and after tonight Chelsea do not play again until exactly then, at home to Bournemouth. You know why: a three-week break starts after this gameweek. So in practice he misses ONE gameweek, not three, and on a normal recovery he is back for the Gameweek 6 deadline.
432,000 managers have sold him today. If you are doing that for a -4 hit purely to sit out one match, you are paying a penalty for something that resolves itself.
What to do:
- You own him and have someone on the bench who plays tonight — keep him. Autosubs do the work, and he returns for Gameweek 6.
- You were making a transfer in that position anyway — today is a fine moment, because the free transfer would otherwise go to waste.
- You are considering a -4 purely for this one gameweek — probably not worth it.
- Do not give him the captaincy under any circumstances.
Update (Friday 18 September, 10:30 BST) — predicted lineups. The sites publishing predicted XIs have João Pedro starting for Chelsea tonight (most often in a 3-4-2-1, with Palmer and Rogers behind him). These are still predictions, not confirmation — official teams land around 19:00, half an hour before kick-off and long after the deadline.
Pulling the other way, a new detail: he also missed Thursday’s training session, not just Tuesday’s. Xabi Alonso said on Thursday: “We will see tomorrow if João is ready to play, it’s a possibility.” In the game the status is unchanged at 75%, and the number of managers selling him has risen to 347,000.
What this means in practice: nobody has certainty today, and you have to decide before 18:30. If you keep him, sort out a sensible bench and bench order — with a 75% flag, autosubs are your safety net. If you were planning a transfer in that position anyway, today is the last moment, because the next gameweek is not until 10 October.
One more change on the home side: Nathan Collins picked up a calf problem against Sunderland and was replaced by Jannik Schuster.
Update (Friday 18 September, morning). Xabi Alonso addressed it at Thursday’s press conference and ruled nobody out: final decisions come after Friday training, and João Pedro “could still feature”. Alonso did not confirm the nature of the problem. Moisés Caicedo is “getting closer” to fitness, and Reece James also remains in contention.
Within a day the market flipped: yesterday João Pedro was the eighth most-bought player in the game, today he is the third most-sold (337,000), with ownership down from 74.6% to 71.8%. As a reminder, Brentford v Chelsea kicks off at 20:00 — ninety minutes after the deadline.
The latest numbers before today’s deadline, along with our League Cup round-up, are in the new article.
There are just over thirty hours until the Gameweek 5 deadline, and the most-owned forward in the game now carries an injury flag. João Pedro has withdrawn from the Brazil squad, and Chelsea play on Friday — ninety minutes after teams lock.
What happened
The Brazilian federation confirmed João Pedro is injured and will miss the September internationals. It gave no details. According to Brazilian outlet Globo, he hurt his knee in an aerial challenge during Saturday’s game against Hull, played on, scored a late equaliser, but the pain persisted and scans revealed a problem.
In FPL he was flagged on Wednesday: “unspecified injury — 75% chance of playing.” That is the same level of uncertainty we saw with Gakpo. British outlets report he was also missing from Tuesday’s training session alongside captain Reece James and Moisés Caicedo — so Chelsea head into Friday with three question marks, not one.
Xabi Alonso addresses it at his Thursday press conference. That is the single most important thing to check tonight — at the time of writing he has not yet spoken.
Why this affects almost everyone
João Pedro sits in 74.6% of squads. Three in four managers will wake up tomorrow with this problem. For context, Haaland is on 72.6% — which makes the Brazilian the most-owned player in the game right now.
The reason is simple. He has the best start of any mid-priced forward: 33 points, 3 goals, 3 assists and a full 360 minutes across four gameweeks, at £7.8m, plus the Player of the Month award for August.
The problem is that Brentford v Chelsea kicks off at 20:00 on Friday and the deadline is 18:30. You lock your squad without knowing whether he starts. Alonso’s press conference is the only source you will get in time.
And the crowd keeps buying him
Here is where it gets interesting. Despite the flag, João Pedro is the eighth most-bought player in the game this week — 222,000 transfers in. Only 96,000 managers sold him, less than half as many. On top of that he rose 0.3m in price and is one of only three players with the biggest price rises of the season so far.
In other words, the market is buying an injured forward faster than it is dropping him. Some of those moves will predate Tuesday’s news, but the price is still climbing, so the buying has not stopped.
That does not prove the crowd is wrong — last week we showed the opposite can be true. It is a sign to make this decision deliberately rather than on reflex.
What our model cannot see
To be straight with you: our AI Rating still gives João Pedro 85 and a “buy” verdict, and the Recommended Squad for Gameweek 5 still picks him.
That is not a bug, it is a known limitation. The model reads sporting data: minutes, xG, xA, form, fixture difficulty and the official status in the game. It does not read press conferences or reports out of Brazil. A “75%” flag lowers a rating but does not erase it, because the player can still formally play.
We described the same situation with Gakpo last week and with Delap in August. The rule holds: when the manager says something different from the table, listen to the manager.
Who to take instead, if you are selling
Below are the highest-rated forwards with full availability. Numbers from our engine, as of Thursday morning.
| Player | Club | Price | Rating | Ownership | GW5 fixture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | MCI | £15.5m | 90 | 72.6% | home, Sunderland (2/5) |
| Evanilson | BOU | £6.0m | 85 | 3.3% | home, Liverpool (4/5) |
| Calvert-Lewin | LEE | £6.0m | 83 | 23.4% | home, Crystal Palace (3/5) |
| Igor Thiago | BRE | £7.9m | 83 | 9.3% | home, Chelsea (4/5) |
| Igor Jesus | NFO | £5.8m | 81 | 2.6% | home, Coventry (2/5) |
| Barry | EVE | £5.6m | 80 | 6.7% | home, Ipswich (2/5) |
The second row is the interesting one. Evanilson carries exactly the same rating as João Pedro — 85 — at £6.0m instead of £7.8m, and 3.3% ownership instead of 74.6%. The catch: Bournemouth host Liverpool, the hardest fixture in the table.
If you want something calmer for one week, Igor Jesus at £5.8m and Thierno Barry at £5.6m both play at home against difficulty-2 opponents, and both free up cash.
The third option is the dullest and often the best: do nothing. A “75%” flag means he probably plays. If he is covered by a sensible bench, autosubs handle it and your transfer stays in the bank.
League Cup: who has an extra game in the legs
The Carabao Cup third round was played this week, and it changes the picture before the weekend, because some clubs played an extra match after Gameweek 4 while others rested.
| GW5 fixture | Cup game this week | Fresher side |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford v Chelsea (Fri 20:00) | Brentford: Tuesday. Chelsea: did not play | Chelsea |
| Tottenham v Aston Villa (Sat 12:30) | Tottenham: Tuesday. Villa: Wednesday | Tottenham |
| Brighton v Arsenal (Sat 15:00) | Brighton: Wednesday. Arsenal: Tuesday | Arsenal |
| Everton v Ipswich (Sat 15:00) | Everton: Wednesday. Ipswich: Tuesday | Ipswich |
| Forest v Coventry (Sat 17:30) | Forest: did not play. Coventry: Wednesday | Forest |
| Man City v Sunderland (Sun 14:00) | City: Thursday. Sunderland: did not play | Sunderland |
| Bournemouth v Liverpool (Sun 14:00) | Bournemouth: did not play. Liverpool: Tuesday | Bournemouth |
| Fulham v Man Utd (Sun 16:30) | Fulham: Tuesday. United: Wednesday | Fulham |
Two things stand out. Aston Villa have the worst combination in the round: they played Wednesday and kick off earliest of anyone, Saturday lunchtime. Meanwhile Gibbs-White and Forest did not play at all this week and host a Coventry side that fought for progress on Wednesday — which strengthens yesterday’s argument that Gibbs-White has the same profile as Haaland for half the price.
Separately: Manchester United lost 3-2 at home to Brighton after leading 2-0, and left the pitch to boos. Michael Carrick said afterwards that he understood them. For FPL it matters less than rotation, but Mbeumo and Bruno travel to Craven Cottage on Sunday in a poor atmosphere.
Everything else before the deadline
Prices are moving properly now. There have been 259 changes since the season started, 232 of them drops. The biggest risers are De Cuyper (+0.4), Gvardiol and Groß. The biggest fallers are Arsenal players — Madueke, Gyökeres, Eze and Mosquera, all sliding before the trip to Brighton.
Flags outside Chelsea: Shaw (MUN, 75%, 9.9% owned), Pedro Porro (TOT, 75%), Elanga (NEW, injured, no return date, 8.5%), Mendy (HUL, concussion, 50%), White (ARS, muscular, 75%), Tonali (TOT, 75%). Foden remains suspended until 17 October. Full list in the Injury Centre.
Who the crowd is buying: Rogers (463k), Groß (399k), Gibbs-White (365k), Gvardiol (356k). Note the top name — Rogers plays in the same match as João Pedro, on Friday, after the deadline.
Five-minute checklist before the deadline
- Check what Alonso said at the Thursday press conference — it is the only reliable source on João Pedro before Friday.
- If you keep him, set a sensible bench and bench order.
- Remember Chelsea kick off after the deadline — captaining anyone from that game is a blind call.
- Look at the captain picks: Haaland and Gibbs-White have identical profiles today (risk 34, upside 89), both at home against difficulty-2 opponents.
- Do not take a -4 hit purely because someone carries a 75% flag.
All numbers come from our engine and the official game API, as of Thursday 17 September, morning. Ratings recalculate after every gameweek and a player’s status can change after a press conference. This article was produced with the help of AI and reviewed by our editorial team. This is not betting advice.