Injury news moves millions of transfers every week — and most of them are premature. Here is how to read the noise like a professional.
Not all sources are equal
Our Injury Centre labels every report with a fixed confidence score: an official club statement is 95%, Fabrizio Romano 85%, Sky Sports and BBC 80%, trusted insiders 60–70%, everything else 40%. A “he’s out for weeks” from a random account is not news — it is content.
The three questions before you transfer
- Does he miss more than two matches? One blank is usually cheaper to bench than to transfer.
- Is there a like-for-like replacement in the same price band? Check the Rankings filters before you burn a free transfer.
- What does the flag actually say? FPL’s yellow flag with 75% means “probably plays”. Managers sell 75% flags out of anxiety, not analysis.
How our ratings react
Availability is worth 10% of the AI Rating: a red flag zeroes that slice instantly, a 75% yellow costs a few points. The Injury Centre shows the rating before and after each report, so you can see the damage in numbers, not vibes, before you act.
Research and data analysis supported by AI (our own rating engine); reviewed and edited by the author. Ratings update hourly — check the live AI Player Rankings.