Update (Monday, 28 September). Liverpool have a second injury from the break. Cody Gakpo came off after 17 minutes of Sunday’s Netherlands v Serbia (2-1) following a heavy challenge on his ankle from Saša Lukić. He had a scan on Monday. Netherlands coach Xavi does not think it is serious, but the club has not yet shared the result. The game now flags Gakpo as a doubt (75% chance of playing), and at 12.5% ownership his rating has slipped from 86 to 84. Earlier, on Friday, Isak left the Sweden camp with a minor thigh problem (rating 74, Hold).
What it changes here: nothing in the fixture numbers themselves, but it strengthens the Liverpool point. The side with one of the toughest runs for gameweeks 6–10 now has two doubtful attackers, and hosts Manchester City in gameweek 6. There are almost two weeks until the deadline (Saturday 10 October, 11:00 UK), so there is no reason to make a blind transfer today. Check your squad on 8–9 October, once players are back from international duty.
There are thirteen days until the Gameweek 6 deadline and nothing useful you can do with your squad right now. What you can do is something there is never time for in a normal week: work out who plays whom after the break. We added up the official fixture difficulty for all twenty clubs across Gameweeks 6–10, and it produced one awkward answer.
The easiest run in the league belongs to Fulham — a club almost nobody owns. The hardest belongs to Liverpool, the club everybody owns.
How we calculated it
Every fixture in the official data carries a difficulty rating from 2 to 5, separately for the home and away side. We summed those ratings across the next five gameweeks. The lower the number, the easier the run. Five average fixtures come to roughly 15, so anything under 14 is clearly easier than the rest of the field and anything above 16 clearly harder.
| Club | GW6–10 | GW11–15 | Fixtures 6–10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 12 | 17 | IPS (a), HUL (h), COV (a), AVL (a), NEW (h) |
| Coventry | 14 | 14 | NEW (h), TOT (a), FUL (h), SUN (h), EVE (a) |
| Newcastle | 14 | 17 | COV (a), AVL (h), CRY (a), EVE (h), FUL (a) |
| Arsenal | 15 | 16 | LEE (h), NFO (a), EVE (h), LIV (a), HUL (h) |
| Chelsea | 15 | 17 | BOU (h), EVE (a), TOT (h), MUN (h), SUN (a) |
| Man City | 15 | 17 | LIV (a), IPS (h), AVL (a), BHA (h), NFO (a) |
| Aston Villa | 16 | 12 | BRE (h), NEW (a), MCI (h), FUL (h), MUN (a) |
| Brighton | 17 | 14 | SUN (a), CRY (h), LIV (a), MCI (a), BRE (h) |
| Leeds | 17 | 17 | ARS (a), MUN (h), SUN (a), BOU (a), TOT (h) |
| Liverpool | 17 | 17 | MCI (h), BRE (a), BHA (h), ARS (h), CRY (a) |
Fulham: the window opens now and shuts in five gameweeks
Fulham start with three fixtures at the lowest possible difficulty: away at Ipswich, home to Hull, away at Coventry. A total of 12 is the lowest in the league — three clear of fourth-placed Arsenal.
The catch is that the window closes. In Gameweeks 11–15 Fulham jump to 17, the biggest deterioration of any club. This is a classic “get in and plan the exit”, not a set-and-forget.
Who exactly? This is where it gets interesting, because the model rates players almost nobody owns:
| Player | Position | Price | Ownership | Our rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Iwobi | midfielder | £5.4m | 0.7% | 86 — buy |
| Josh King | midfielder | £5.5m | 2.5% | 85 — buy |
| Timothy Castagne | defender | £4.5m | 0.9% | 84 — buy |
| Calvin Bassey | defender | £4.5m | 0.7% | 81 — buy |
Iwobi rated 86 at 0.7 per cent ownership is one of the widest gaps in the game. To be fair about what that rating does not capture: Fulham do not score heavily, so these are picks for clean sheets and single returns rather than for big hauls.
Liverpool: the hardest run, and everybody has them
Liverpool open at home to Manchester City, then travel to Brentford, host Brighton, host Arsenal and go to Crystal Palace. A total of 17 is jointly the worst in the league — and it does not improve in Gameweeks 11–15.
The problem is that almost everybody owns Liverpool players: Szoboszlai is in 33 per cent of squads, Isak in 22.5, van Dijk in 16, Gakpo in 12.6.
Our model has already priced this in. All four ratings dropped a point or two in recent days — Szoboszlai from 87 to 86, Gakpo the same, Wirtz from 85 to 84, van Dijk from 84 to 83. That is not our opinion of their form, it is an automatic response to upcoming fixture difficulty, which feeds into the formula.
Isak: a flag and the worst fixtures at once
Isak was hit hardest. A flag appeared over the weekend — foot injury, 75 per cent chance of playing — and his rating fell from 78 to 74, from “buy” to “hold”. On top of that comes the run described above.
This is the player we wrote about from August as a premium trap, before honestly admitting the model had been too harsh once he started returning. Now it has turned again: at £9.1m and 22.5 per cent ownership he carries both an injury and the toughest set of fixtures in the league. If you are planning a wildcard, he is the first name to think about.
Newcastle: second-best fixtures and real quality
If Fulham feels too risky, Newcastle at 14 is the more comfortable option — with players the model rates higher:
- Harvey Barnes — £6.1m, rated 88, owned by 5.6 per cent. Our Gameweek 5 differential, where he registered two assists.
- Lewis Hall — £5.3m, rated 86, 31 points this season at 17 per cent ownership.
- Malick Thiaw — £5.0m, rated 82, at just 2.2 per cent ownership.
Aston Villa: wait
Villa sit on 16 now, but drop to 12 across Gameweeks 11–15 — the biggest improvement in the league. If someone in that squad tempts you, a better moment arrives in a month. The same applies to Brighton (17 now, 14 later).
The injury list is growing, as we said it would
On Tuesday we wrote that flag lists tend to grow during a break. Today twelve players owned by more than 3 per cent carry a flag: João Pedro (65 per cent), Palmer (26), Isak (22.5), Semenyo (15), Rice (12), van Ewijk, Havertz, Pedro Porro, Brobbey, Reece James, White and Elanga.
Nearly all are the mild “75 per cent” variety. International fixtures run until 6 October, so this list will grow further — which is precisely why today is not the day to decide anything.
What this means in practice
- Gameweek 6 deadline: Saturday 10 October, 11:00 UK time. Earlier than usual, because the first match kicks off at 12:30.
- If you are planning a wildcard, the break is the best moment to work through the options — we have a separate guide on when to play it.
- Fixtures are one of four components in our rating, not the whole thing — an easy run alone does not turn an average player into a good pick. How we calculate the rest is in the methodology.
- Check your squad on 8 or 9 October, not on the Saturday morning. Current flags are always in the Injury Centre, and the full schedule with difficulty in the fixture ticker.
Fixture difficulty comes from official Fantasy Premier League data, read on 27 September. Player ratings come from our own AI model. We are not affiliated with the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.