Update (Friday 4 September, morning). The deadline is today at 18:30 UK — the article below was written on Thursday, so where it says “tomorrow”, it means today. Three things changed overnight that are worth checking before your last transfers.
Joe Rodon (Leeds) is out for two and a half months. Yesterday he was a 50% doubt; today he has a confirmed hamstring injury with a return date of 21 November. If he is in your squad, this is no longer a question of risk. He is owned by 2.6% of managers.
Two new flags appeared overnight: Dan Burn (Newcastle, 1.2%) is due back around 14 September, and Matheus Nunes (Man City, 1.0%) is a 75% doubt. Going the other way, Ipswich’s Emersonn has been cleared. The full list is in the Injury Centre.
Prices are moving properly now: 119 changes in a single day. Rayan Cherki rose another £0.2m (to £7.7m) and is up to 28.7% ownership after more than 1.5 million transfers in — comfortably the story of the week. In the other direction, eight Arsenal players fell in price, for a simple reason: Arsenal do not play until Sunday, and then against Chelsea.
The rest of the article stands — six players flagged as having left the league are still sitting in squads, and Ndiaye still rates higher with us after his move to City than he did before it, even though more than 330,000 managers have now sold him.
There are just over thirty hours left before the Gameweek 3 deadline — it closes tomorrow, Friday 4 September at 18:30 UK. And something happened overnight that changes several decisions: the game has finally processed the entire transfer window. We counted 59 changes: new players, club switches and “has left” flags.
Only yesterday we were writing that nothing from deadline day had reached the database. Today the picture is complete — and it looks different from what you might assume.
First, check whether you own someone who has left the league
This is the most urgent item and it takes a minute. Six players are now flagged as departed while still sitting in squads. Each one is a guaranteed zero every week.
| Player | Club | Owned by | Moved to |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Watkins | Aston Villa | 5.1% | Al Hilal |
| Beto | Everton | 1.9% | Fiorentina |
| Dane Scarlett | Tottenham | 1.9% | Leyton Orient |
| Robert Sánchez | Chelsea | 1.6% | Como (loan) |
| Oliver Dovin | Coventry | 1.5% | Leyton Orient (loan) |
| Nick Woltemade | Newcastle | 1.2% | Juventus (loan) |
Watkins is the painful one, owned by one manager in twenty. We flagged him a week ago — back then our model still rated him highly and the market was right. Now it is formally settled.
Ndiaye: his situation improved, and a quarter of a million people are selling him
This is the most interesting split of the week. Iliman Ndiaye moved from Everton to Manchester City for £65m, and the game processed it overnight. The effect on our model:
Ndiaye’s rating went up from 88 to 89, because the model recalculated his new club’s fixtures. Everton host Manchester United this round (difficulty 4). Manchester City are at home to Coventry (difficulty 2), then away at United and home to Sunderland.
At the same time Ndiaye is the fifth most-sold player of the week — 245,000 managers have moved him on, from 13.6% ownership.
The instinct is understandable: a player changes club, joins a crowded attack, so it feels safer to leave. But the numbers say the opposite of the instinct. For £6.0m you now get a player rated 89 who cost the same yesterday with a harder run of fixtures. The only real question is whether he starts. We find out on Saturday afternoon, and the deadline is Friday — so it is a bet, not a certainty.
The same applies to Enzo Fernández: after his move to City his rating rose from 85 to 87, at 3.5% ownership and £6.9m.
Who to buy: the best options by our model
If you want specifics for tomorrow, here is how the top looks by budget.
When you have the money
| Player | Club | Price | Rating | Fixture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Szoboszlai | Liverpool | £7.0m | 90 | away Ipswich (2) |
| Semenyo | Man City | £8.5m | 90 | home Coventry (2) |
| Mbeumo | Man Utd | £8.0m | 88 | away Everton (3) |
Szoboszlai and Semenyo are the only two “strong buy” verdicts in the game — and both are being sold heavily, which we covered yesterday in the full gameweek guide. Mbeumo, rated 88, is the most-sold player of the week: 514,000 managers have let him go.
When you are looking for value at £6.0m or less
| Player | Club | Position | Price | Rating | Owned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ndiaye | Man City | midfielder | £6.0m | 89 | 13.6% |
| Guéhi | Man City | defender | £6.0m | 89 | 18.9% |
| Tavernier | Bournemouth | midfielder | £6.0m | 87 | 2.3% |
| Thiaw | Newcastle | defender | £5.0m | 86 | 2.0% |
| Tarkowski | Everton | defender | £6.0m | 86 | 10.5% |
| Stach | Leeds | midfielder | £6.0m | 85 | 2.8% |
Thiaw at £5.0m on two percent ownership is the pick here: a Newcastle defender at home to Bournemouth, with Leeds, Hull and Coventry to follow. The best value at the back costs five million and almost nobody owns it.
Differentials, owned by 6% or less
Dewsbury-Hall (Everton, £6.5m, rated 88, 4.4%), Anderson (Man City, £6.4m, 88, 5.3%) and Tavernier above. Enzo Fernández at 3.5% qualifies too.
New in the game: buy now or wait
The window brought in players you could not buy before. Our ratings for them are low, and that needs an honest explanation.
| Player | Club | Price | Our rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fernández Pardo | Newcastle | £6.0m | 22 |
| Grealish | Everton | £6.5m | 68 |
| Harwood-Bellis | Aston Villa | £4.5m | 21 |
| Mbaye | Aston Villa | £6.0m | 21 |
| Chilwell | Crystal Palace | £4.5m | 21 |
A rating of 21 or 22 does not mean these are poor players. It means they have not played a single Premier League minute this season, and our model rewards proven appearances at this level. Once they play, the ratings climb on their own — as they have for every newcomer.
In practice: Fernández Pardo is reported to be available for Saturday’s game against Bournemouth, but buying a player with zero minutes the day before a match is a bet, not a data-led decision. Grealish, rated 68, is the safest of this group because he knows the league — though he too is starting at a new club.
Injury notes today
- Mateta (Crystal Palace, 2.9%) — hamstring, back around 11 October.
- Rodon (Leeds, 2.9%) and Hinshelwood (Brighton, 1.5%) — 50% each.
- Caicedo (Chelsea, 2.1%), Palestra (Chelsea) and Emersonn (Ipswich) — 75% each.
Press conferences run through today and tomorrow morning, so this list can change. The full version is in the Injury Centre.
Checklist for tomorrow
- Check the six players in the table above — owning any of them is a guaranteed loss.
- Do not sell Ndiaye on instinct. His rating went up after the move, not down.
- Do not buy anyone without a single minute this season, however much they cost.
- Captain and vice from different matches — Liverpool play Friday at 20:00 UK, after the deadline.
- Come back tomorrow morning, after the last press conferences.
Every rating is in the AI Rankings, captaincy picks with risk and upside in Captain Picks, and a ready-made fifteen in the Recommended Squad. You can also join our mini league — code 3ix1cw, currently 68 teams.
Our ratings are generated by an AI model from official FPL data, refreshed hourly. The numbers are from Thursday 3 September — ownership, prices and injury flags change during the day, so check again just before the deadline.