Update (Thursday 3 September, morning). The section “Deadline-day transfers are not in the game yet” is now out of date — the game processed the entire window overnight, 59 changes at once. Three corrections to the article below.
Enzo Fernández and Iliman Ndiaye are now listed as Manchester City players. Our model recalculated on its own: Ndiaye rose from 88 to 89 and Enzo from 85 to 87 — in both cases because City’s fixture run is kinder than that of their previous clubs.
The Recommended Squad no longer fields Ndiaye as an Everton player — but he is not in it either. The reason is interesting: after the move to City he no longer fits the three-players-per-club limit, because Guéhi, O’Reilly and Haaland are already in. Gibbs-White took his place. In Captain Picks, meanwhile, Ndiaye has climbed to third.
The window also brought in players you could not buy before: Fernández Pardo (Newcastle, £6.0m), Grealish (Everton, £6.5m), Harwood-Bellis and Mbaye (Aston Villa), Chilwell and Timber (Crystal Palace). And the other way round: six players are now flagged as having left the league while still sitting in squads — led by Watkins at 5.1% ownership.
We set all of it out in today’s piece on who to buy before the deadline, along with the full list of players to sell and the new ratings. The rest of the article below — captaincy, prices and fixtures — still stands.
The Gameweek 3 deadline is Friday 4 September at 18:30 UK. This is the first round after the transfer window closed, so the picture is finally stable — with one exception we will come to.
One thing stands out in the data: the crowd is selling both players our model rates highest right now.
The market is dumping both “Strong Buy” players
After the ratings recalculated, there are exactly two “Strong Buy” verdicts in the entire game. Both of those players are among the most-sold this week.
| Player | Price | Our rating | Sold by | GW3 fixture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Szoboszlai (LIV) | £7.0m | 90 — strong buy | 238,000 | away to Ipswich (2) |
| Semenyo (MCI) | £8.5m | 90 — strong buy | 261,000 | home to Coventry (2) |
Both have among the easiest fixtures of the entire round. It is the same pattern we described a week ago with Bruno Fernandes — sold en masse after one poor game, then a hat-trick and 23 points. We are not saying history has to repeat. We are saying that selling the highest-rated player in the game before an easy fixture needs a better reason than his last score.
The same applies to Bryan Mbeumo: the most-sold player of the week at 447,000 transfers out, on a rating of 87 with a “buy” verdict.
Cherki: a million transfers in one week
Rayan Cherki is the story of the week. Over 1.1 million managers bought him after his two goals in Gameweek 2, his ownership jumped to 24.1%, and his price rose £0.2m in two days — the fastest riser in the game.
Here the model goes with the crowd, though without enthusiasm: a rating of 85 with a “buy” verdict. He is a good player in a good side facing an easy fixture. Just remember that his 14 points in Gameweek 2 came off the bench, and that City’s attack has just become more crowded.
Where the crowd is wrong the other way
Two heavily bought players carry a “sell” verdict with us: Semi Ajayi (408,000 transfers in, our rating 56) and Mamadou Sangaré (326,000, rating 58). We flagged the same thing on Sangaré a week ago — he then returned 4 points.
Captaincy: five candidates, all with easy fixtures
For every pick we calculate risk (minutes security, availability, fixture difficulty) and upside (attacking numbers against that opponent).
| Player | Rating | Risk | Upside | Fixture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Szoboszlai (LIV) | 90 | 36 | 89 | away to Ipswich (2) |
| Gakpo (LIV) | 89 | 36 | 87 | away to Ipswich (2) |
| Guéhi (MCI) | 89 | 36 | 87 | home to Coventry (2) |
| Semenyo (MCI) | 90 | 36 | 85 | home to Coventry (2) |
| Haaland (MCI) | 89 | 36 | 83 | home to Coventry (2) |
The model points to Szoboszlai — highest rating and highest ceiling in the group. Haaland, owned by 70% of managers, closes out the five with the lowest upside, though nobody sensible would call him a bad pick at home to Coventry.
One practical note: Liverpool play on Friday at 20:00 UK, ninety minutes after the deadline. Captaining Szoboszlai or Gakpo means doing it without knowing the team. If you want certainty, a captain from City’s Saturday fixture buys it at the cost of a slightly lower ceiling.
Deadline-day transfers are not in the game yet
This is the most practical point of the week. The window shut on Tuesday, but the game has not processed a single deadline-day move:
- Enzo Fernández is still listed as a Chelsea player despite his £125m move to Manchester City.
- Iliman Ndiaye is still listed at Everton despite his confirmed £65m transfer to City.
That has a concrete consequence: our Recommended Squad currently fields Ndiaye as an Everton player, against Manchester United. The model works with what the official data shows. Until the game updates, treat that slot with caution — and check your squad again on Friday morning.
Prices have finally started moving
For three weeks we repeated that the “buy before he rises” panic had no basis, because prices were static. That is over: there have now been 102 changes, against four before Gameweek 2. The fastest risers are Cherki, Sangaré, De Cuyper, Palmer and João Pedro.
The principle stands: £0.1m is not a reason to make a transfer. But if you were making the move anyway, doing it now beats doing it on Friday evening.
Injuries and absentees
- Ollie Watkins has joined Al Hilal and is still owned by 5.5% of managers. That is a guaranteed zero every week.
- Jean-Philippe Mateta (Palace) — hamstring, expected back around 11 October.
- Moisés Caicedo (Chelsea) — 75% chance of playing, 13 minutes across two gameweeks.
- Joe Rodon (Leeds) — 50% chance of playing.
Gameweek 3 fixtures
| Fixture | Time (UK) | Difficulty |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich – Liverpool | Fri 20:00 | 4 / 2 |
| Newcastle – Bournemouth | Sat 12:30 | 3 / 3 |
| Brentford – Sunderland | Sat 15:00 | 2 / 3 |
| Brighton – Leeds | Sat 15:00 | 2 / 3 |
| Fulham – Crystal Palace | Sat 15:00 | 3 / 3 |
| Man City – Coventry | Sat 15:00 | 2 / 5 |
| Nott’m Forest – Tottenham | Sat 15:00 | 3 / 3 |
| Hull – Aston Villa | Sat 17:30 | 3 / 2 |
| Everton – Man Utd | Sun 14:00 | 4 / 3 |
| Arsenal – Chelsea | Sun 16:30 | 4 / 5 |
The kindest fixture belongs to Manchester City at home to Coventry. The hardest is Chelsea at the Emirates, the only game of the round rated difficult for both sides.
The recommended squad this week
Our model sets up in 3-5-2: Pickford in goal; Guéhi, O’Reilly and Thiaw at the back; Szoboszlai with the armband, Gakpo as vice, Rogers, Dewsbury-Hall and Ndiaye in midfield; Haaland and João Pedro up front.
The full fifteen with bench and budget is in the Recommended Squad module, and every captaincy pick with risk and upside is in Captain Picks.
Before you hit confirm
- Check whether you still own Watkins — he no longer plays in this league.
- Do not sell Szoboszlai or Semenyo just because the market is. Both have easy fixtures.
- Remember Liverpool kick off after the deadline — a captain from that game is a blind call.
- Captain and vice from different fixtures.
- Come back on Friday morning — the game may have processed the Enzo and Ndiaye moves by then.
Every rating is in the AI Rankings, and the difficulty run is in the Fixture Ticker. You can also join our mini league — code 3ix1cw, currently 67 teams.
Our ratings are generated by an AI model from official FPL data, refreshed hourly. The numbers in this article are from Wednesday 2 September — ownership, prices and injury notes change during the day, so it is worth checking again just before the deadline.